Sports betting makes matches seem much more important. They give a rush of excitement, thrill and nerves all at once.
Bookmakers use all sorts of statistics to come up with their odds so if you can get an edge or understand how they make their lines, you will be far better off.
Follow these tips and tricks to increase profit when betting on sports.
Is it really worth betting on a team that is 1/10 to win? Sure, they must be likely to win the match but unless you are wagering a big number, it’s not worth the bet.
This is where the concept of value bets comes in. Being able to spot value means that you are able to spot odds that are too high and capitalising.
Compare it to trade on the stock market: you will always buy when the prices are low and undervalued because in time, their price will increase.
Spotting value is in essence about judging probabilities more correctly than the market does. Of course, it is difficult to do that for every game and every sport, but that isn’t necessary. Your big advantage over the bookmaker lies in the ability to skip matches with unfavourable odds.
Once you consistently spot value bets, you will have an edge over the bookmakers.
How bookmakers make their odds
In general, bookies will create their betting lines by what the general public feels like the result of the match will be. This attracts betting on either side of the line so when they have to pay out on winning bets, their liabilities are kept to a minimum while cashing in on their commission.
This creates a glaring hole to exploit: when the general public’s perception, there is a huge opportunity for a value bet.
Casual gamblers have very little to no knowledge of profitable betting strategies leaving room for more value to be found on high profile events, such as the Super Bowl or World Cup Final.
General bookmakers want to create as much action as possible, meaning better odds and for a small commission.
Love the teams that everyone else hates
If everyone hates a specific team, they are going to bet against them.
Based on what we know about how a bookmaker makes their odds based on general public opinion, the odds on the hated team will be far better than what they should be.
This is best seen when a team has lost a few games in a row or they haven’t scored many goals/points over the last match or two. You will see a huge surge of love towards their next opponents, leaving a lot of value on the table.
Don’t go for the big scores
We have all had the dream of making an accumulator with odds of 1,500/1, betting £20 and watch the money roll in. In reality, this never happens.
The truth of the matter is that accumulators are terrible value bets.
Everyone who adds a leg to a multi does so because they believe they are finding value. Nobody bets odds that don’t represent value to them. But key to creating value is in finding true value or else you’re only diminishing your chances of success with each leg you add.
If you’re serious about making money from sports betting, you need to have sensible bankroll management. You should be betting 1-2% of your bankroll per bet.
So, for example, if your bankroll is £1,000, each bet you make should be £20 maximum. With proper bankroll management and utilising value bets, that £1,000 can increase rapidly, meaning bigger unit sizes and bigger profits.
You must be consistent and not fall into the trap of chasing losses with bigger bets. This can quickly lead to bankroll destruction and you’ll have lost everything.
Of course, this is the most sensible way to bet; the Kelly criterion can help with bet sizes if you are looking to get an even bigger edge.
Think long term
You should think of sports betting like any other type of investment. Don’t treat it as a way to make quick, short term gains.
Be patient with your approach and the success will follow. What will look like painfully slow growth initially will end up picking up a remarkable exponential dynamic.
You may experience downswings or losing streaks making the profit curve look less smooth but stay disciplined with your bet sizes and you’ll go far.
Or, get the ability to predict the future
Hey, if you can, why not?
Disclosure: This is a collaborative post.